By Mike Whitney
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made every effort to de-escalate tensions in Syria and to find a reasonable way to end the hostilities. What he opposes now, and what he has rejected from the very beginning, is removing Syrian President Bashar al Assad through force-of-arms. On this point, Putin remains inflexible. As he stated in a recent interview with Charlie Rose, “At no time in the past or in the future will Russia take part in actions aimed at overthrowing a legitimate government.”
As far as Putin is concerned, regime change is a non-starter. The Obama administration, on the other hand, has made it quite clear that it wants to remove Assad by any means possible. In a speech he delivered to the United Nations General Assembly on September 28, Obama underlined this point saying: “When a dictator slaughters tens of thousands of his own people, that is not just a matter of one nation’s inter- nal affairs—it breeds human suffering on an order of magnitude that affects us all ... The United States is prepared to work with any nation, including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict. But we must recognize that there cannot be, after so much bloodshed, so much carnage, a return to the pre-war status quo.”
Obama’s comments were followed shortly after by other members of the political establishment who signaled their support for the president’s position by reiterating the all-too-familiar refrain, “Assad must go.” What’s shocking about Obama’s statement is that it’s nearly identical to statements made by George W. Bush prior to the inva sion of Iraq. The “evil dictator” meme factored heavily into Bush’s rationale for launching Operation Enduring Freedom, the lethal foray that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians and displaced millions of others. Now Obama is invoking the same language to plunge yet another Muslim country into chaos and ruin. Why? Clearly, the policy has nothing to do with fighting terrorism, spreading democracy or ending state repression. Regime change is a way of achieving U.S. geopolitical objectives; securing resources in the oil-rich Middle East, establishing forward-operating bases across the region, and reinforcing US
global hegemony. These are the real goals that are driving the policy. The blather about humanitarian concerns is merely public relations pabulum Putin has a good grasp of what the U.S. is up-to in Syria. In a recent in terview he said, “President Obama frequently mentions the threat of
ISIS. Well, who on earth armed them? And who created the political climate that facilitated the current situation? Who delivered arms to the area? Do you really not know who is fighting in Syria? They’re mercenaries mostly. They are paid money. Mercenaries work for whatever side pays more. We even know how much they are paid. We know they fight for awhile and then see that someone else pays a little more, so they go there...
“The U.S. says ‘We must support the civilized, democratic opposition in Syria.’ So they support them, arm them, and then they join ISIS. Is it impossible for the U.S. to think one step ahead? We do not support this kind of policy at all. We think it’s wrong.”
The point is that Putin knows what Washington is doing and is determined to put an end to it. He’s not going to let Assad be removed from power, and he is going to exterminate as many militants as possible. But that’s just part of his plan. Putin’s also promoting a framework agreement for ending the hostilities and re-establishing security. The plan is called the Geneva communiqué of 2012, although many in the west have never heard of it before. Geneva is the peace plan the United States will eventually agree to when they have exhausted all other options.
Unfortunately, that could take some time since Washington is bound to be upset about not getting its way. And that, of course, is going to be a problem, because when Washington is angry, bad
things happen. In fact, the administration will probably edge closer and closer to a nuclear conflagration before it backs off and agrees to negotiations. What’s important is that Putin hold his ground and refuse to budge. He mustn’t give in to U.S. threats or coercion. Regime change must be defeated before peace can prevail.
The basic provisions in Geneva are fairly straightforward. It allows for the “establishment of a transitional governing body” that must be acceptable to both the government and opposition. It requires the “participation of all groups ... of society in a meaningful national dialogue process.” And it calls for “free and fair multi-party elections for the new institutions and offices that have been established.”
This doesn’t resolve the central issue of whether Assad goes or stays, but it does put the matter in the hands of the people who should decide such things, the Syrian voters. Internationally monitored elections will make sure that the will of the people is fairly reflected in the counting of ballots.
If the Obama administration is sincere about “democracy promotion” it should stop arming and training jihadis, abandon the plan for regime change, and throw its support behind the Geneva initiative. This is the only way there’s going to be peace in Syria.